Fitz On Sports: Dissecting the 2023 College Football AP Top 25 Rankings
A little preamble before we start, I know I didn’t post a column last weekend. I’ll make that up by doing a back-to-back drop to get things back on pace.
Now, where was I?
Oh, right. Last year, I listed who was too high and too low in the Associated Press’ first Top 25 College Football rankings for the 2022 season.
This year, I’m doing it again, but first I want to take my victory laps and also take my lumps on last year’s column. This will only focus on the AP rankings.
Where Fitz was right in 2022
Too High (first poll): Notre Dame (№ 4), Clemson (№ 5), Oklahoma (№ 9), North Carolina State (№ 13) and Miami FL (№ 16)
Five of the six teams I listed were spot on. Pittsburgh (№ 17) just barely escaped the correct list, as they fell just within the rough parameters I’d accept with a finish at № 22. Here’s what I stated in their write-up:
“Not too much to gripe about with this ranking, though it seems a little too high after losing a Heisman Trophy finalist. Are they Top 25 worthy? Yes, though I think Pitt is three or four spots above where they should be.”
At the end of last season, Notre Dame was at № 18, Clemson was ranked № 13 and Oklahoma, NC State and Miami ALL FINISHED UNRANKED!
Where Fitz was wrong in 2022
Too Low (first poll): Michigan State (№ 15) and Kentucky (№ 20)
As for teams in the ‘Too Low’ category, I was ironically too high on them. Oregon and Utah were ranked more accurately and actually hovered near acceptable rankings. Oregon did choke, which I noted they had to avoid doing.
In terms of Michigan State and Kentucky, I whiffed on those guys, plain and simple. I don’t take as much pleasure in those two picks, but I will own up to it.
Let’s not waste any more time. Onto the 2023 rankings!
Too High
№ 5: LSU
I am going to admit upfront this is the ranking I might reach on. The defensive line and NFL caliber talent isn’t the concern here. It’s head coach Brian Kelly.
Kelly is a good coach but so often last year it felt like he wasn’t in his element. Now, am I saying LSU is going to suck? No. I think when it’s all said and done, they’ll be a Top 10 or 12 program, but I don’t think they’re Top 5 given they have Alabama and Georgia to compete with.
№ 7: Penn State
I like Penn State, and I like Medina, Ohio, product Drew Allar. I think Penn State is a Top 15 team that will take a few lumps this year and then make a jump to true contender in 2024.
Out of all the teams in this category, the Nittany Lions are the team I’m the most rosy on. I’ll happily admit I was wrong here a year from now if Allar balls out and knocks off the likes of Ohio State and Michigan (it doesn’t have to be both, future me!! This is your self-note in the column).
№ 11: Texas
Whether it’s Quinn Ewers or Arch Manning (let’s assume Manning at least at some point), I’d have slotted Texas seven spots lower.
Prove your worth. The voters got it right last year by keeping them out of the initial ranks. While I don’t disagree with giving them a ranking this year, this feels just a smidge too high for me.
№ 12: Tennessee
The Vols lost Hendon Hooker, Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman in the draft. Tennessee should be ranked, but it’s the same thing as Texas.
Barely escaped the ‘Too High’ category
№ 13: Notre Dame
You sons of guns are lucky. It seems voters realized their mistake from last year and tempered expectations for the Fighting Irish.
THIS. CLOSE!
I hope for the sake of a few Notre Dame fans I know that this mercy isn’t misplaced.
Too Low
№ 8: Florida State
I shockingly forgot how good the Seminoles were a year ago. They were 10–3 with a rough three-game losing skid, capped off by a six-game heater to end the season.
Someone has to be above LSU and Penn State. Why not the Seminoles?
№ 15: Oregon
I’m probably reaching here, but I think the Ducks are a Top 10 team. Their ceiling is in the Top 8, but I can also see them finishing the year unranked as well. This one is a toss-up.
№ 19: Wisconsin
I get the hesitation, though Wisconsin feels like a fringe Top 12 team or a cozy Top 15 team. There’s a lot of room for variance here, but № 19 feels a little too low. I’m curious how this plays out.
Just Right
№ 17: TCU
Last year was one helluva ride. Unfortunately, expectations are not going to be a return trip to the title game, though I think the voters got this one right. TCU will be competitive, but I don’t foresee too big of a drop or a gigantic leap.
Sean Fitzgerald is an award-winning journalist, writer, sports reporter, voiceover talent and podcaster. Follow him on Twitter @fitzonsportsbsr for insights, articles and occasional livestreams, as well as bi-weekly columns here on medium.com.
